Test the assumptions that make an opportunity look attractive

Typical situations

• A proposed partnership or representation arrangement
• A market-entry proposal based on one contact
• A project or tender opportunity with incomplete information
• A direct-presence or investment idea
• A buyer request that requires production, pricing or compliance commitments

What is examined

The assessment identifies what must be true for the opportunity to work, what evidence currently supports those conditions, what remains unknown and which missing fact could materially change the decision. Commercial logic, execution capacity, timing, counterparty quality and specialist constraints are considered together.

Decision structure

1. State the opportunityDescribe the proposed value, parties and expected result.
2. List critical assumptionsIdentify the assumptions about demand, price, access, capacity and execution.
3. Test priority evidenceInvestigate the assumptions with the greatest decision impact.
4. Set decision conditionsDefine proceed, revise, pause or stop conditions.

Possible conclusion

The conclusion may support proceeding, but it may also recommend a smaller pilot, a change in terms, another counterpart, specialist verification, postponement or stopping. The purpose is not to defend the original idea; it is to improve the decision.

Scope boundary

This commercial assessment is not a substitute for legal due diligence, financial audit, technical inspection or regulated investment advice. Those services should be commissioned separately when the decision requires them.